Donald Trump and the Vibes of Destiny
Trump critics need to understand the signs of the times, but we don’t want to.
There’s a scene in the 1996 movie My Fellow Americans where two former Presidents one Republican and the other a Democrat and played by Jack Lemmon and James Garner, are on the run. They meet up with a family the seems to be on vacation. The two presidents never got along very well and tended to bicker a lot. In the back seat of this family’s station wagon, they start to bicker again while disrespecting the family that took them in. It was then the wife spoke up. We find out that the family is not on vacation, but that they are experiencing homelessness and living in their car. In a low simmering anger, she talks about how their policies put them in this desperate situation. She throws them out of the car.
For the last few years, pundits have used the term “vibes” to describe the political campaign. At some level, it has bothered me because I’ve always believed that politics was about principles, and issues, not feelings. I think politics can be about principles and the like, but I’m starting to wonder if how people feel about the present moment, the vibes, can also play a role.
Donald Trump seems unstoppable and in many ways he shouldn’t. Not after January 6. Not after all those indictments. And yet, here we are. So, why haven’t anti-Trump Republicans and Democrats been able to prevent him from winning a second term?
I now think it all comes down to vibes, or to put it in the words of New York Times columnist, Ross Douthat, “destiny.”
Douthat’s latest column on Trump as the Man of Destiny offers some insight to why Trump seems so lucky. In the words of Hegel, Trump is an avatar of populism. “He’s the archetype of a global phenomenon precisely because he offers something less coherent and predictable, more inchoate and vibes-based,” Douthat writes.
According to Douthat, Trump is more keyed into the media of today: he knows how to use social media, reality TV, and cable news to his advantage.
Douthat adds he is the dark side of the American dream: “not the Lincolnian statesman but the hustler, the mountebank, the self-promoter, the tabloid celebrity — at a time when American power and American corruption are intermingled.”
Douthat then says something interesting in his essay that is revealing, not about himself or Trump, but about us, about America and especially those who are opposed to Trump. “The man of destiny might represent a test for his society, a form of chastisement, an exposure of weakness and decay — in which case your obligation is not to support him without question….but to try to recognize the historical role he’s playing and match your response to what’s being unsettled or unveiled.”
Trump in some ways might be an apocalyptic character. I’m not talking about end times here, but looking at the actual meaning of the word: which is to reveal. What is the historical role Trump is playing? How is he responding? What are the vibes of the society? I should we respond? There are cultural and economic vibes that are coursing through society that both the left and the non-Trumpy right have ignored; choosing to focus on the man of Trump and not what he might be revealing.
Fred Bauer has an interesting take on how our political moment is becoming more populist than it was say in 2001. Bauer noted in 2001 that the United States dominated the world. The Cold War had ended and the US was triumphant. The economy seemed to be going well. We saw free trade as making the world safe and richer. But that’s no longer the case. “ According to IMF numbers, its economy (when adjusted for purchasing power parity) was over 20% of the global economy (and even greater in absolute terms). The PRC (China) was only about 7% of the global economy — less than France and Germany combined,” Bauer says.
“By 2022,” he continues, “ the U.S had shrunk to about 16% of the global economy by PPP standards, and the PRC was over 18%. Whether or not the PRC’s numbers are completely accurate, the fact remains that there has been a major global rebalancing over the past two decades.”
What brought about the change? Bauer notes a number of things such as 2008 financial crisis, and as well as foreign policy failures have changed the electorate. Several years ago, I wrote about the economic problems people face and how neither party is responding to their concerns.
Then of course there was the fist. I’m referring to Trump raising his fist after the July 13 attempt on his life. Liberal friends thought that was gauche, and yes, Trump, being the showman he is, knew what he was doing when he raised his fist. But thought the act of raising the fist was very American, very defiant. As George W. Bush sat atop the World Trade Center ruins, he talked about how the terrorists would hear America. If Americans feel beleaguered, having someone raise a fist after a traumatic event sends a powerful message.
Anti-Trumpers (including myself) have not been willing to understand what makes Trump popular. We like to think we know. We think it’s that people love authoritarianism or racism or The Handmaids Tale, etc. But Douthat is correct that if one wants to beat Trump, one must understand him. But we are too full of ourselves to deign ourselves in trying to understand him.
Douthat concludes by saying Trump opponents must risk, to not desire normalcy, but wanting something more. The problem of the Dems and NeverTrumpers is that we crave normalcy. Those of us on the outs in the GOP want to go back to Reagan, which means tax cuts and less government. I remember in 2016 as Trump was running in the GOP primaries the answer for people living in depressed areas like my hometown of Flint, Michigan, the answer from many Republicans and conservatives was to move. There is a lot of talk about the importance of the free market and I am a strong believer in the free market who is wary of tariffs and industrial policy. I’m also a guy from Flint, Michigan who has seen working-class towns become economic wastelands. We can argue why this has happened, but the fact of the matter is it is happening. American families don’t feel like they are doing well. Good jobs seem hard to find and people don’t want to be told to just do better and hear platitudes about the market.
Does this mean adopting all of the stuff Trump and JD Vance advocate? No, but my Christian faith tells me that even good things like the free market fall short. Conservatives have to figure out how to help people who affirm their principles and also help people in pain.
When it comes to the Dems, I think about a lot of what has been written in the Liberal Patriot. They argue quite effectively that they are losing the working class. And not just the white working class, but a multi-racial and multi-ethnic working class.
The challenges they face as Ruy Texira notes, are cultural and economic. The Democrats over time have become more the party of the managerial class and not as attuned to the working class.
They also need to take a big risk, maybe a Sister Souljah moment on many fronts that would show a different party.
Trump is a man of destiny in the moment we face. That doesn’t mean he is invincible, but it does mean meeting the challenge of the moment. That means being willing to 1) understand Trump and his voters and 2) be willing to evolve to the moment.
Will that happen? I don’t know. It’s still July and a lot can happen in a few months. Biden might be replaced. There might be a major scandal involving Trump, who knows.
What I do is that right now the opponents of Trump should be winning, but we aren’t and that is a self-own for failing to read the times we are in.
But back to that vignette I shared from My Fellow Americans. The two former presidents were so caught up in their own righteousness that they didn’t see how their policies could affect people. They were ignorant of the “vibes” of the public.
I think that is what is happening now. Donald Trump, for all of his problems and he does have major problems, understands the vibes of the society. Those of us against Trump don’t understand the vibes or the moment of destiny. Will we understand this? That remains to be seen.